Tropical STORM Patty forms in the Bahamas... from TD 16

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Against all odds... and with very little model support and a lack of respect within the tropical community... Tropical Storm Patty formed today while many looked south wondering what Invest 98 might do...


The track from the NRL:

As for the NHC... they have issued their first advisory with a "BUT" it won't last long lingo...
"BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...PATTY FORMS BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED..."

The discussion is even better...actually an excellent write up by one of their best forecasters. I'm highlighting the "maybe" words in red.

THE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE ON BORROWED TIME AS THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. 
FIRST...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO DUE TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  SECOND...A COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND SOME OF
THAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN INTO THE CENTER. 
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN
BY TOMORROW...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE PATTY TO SHEAR APART INTO A
TROUGH.  THIS SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS...AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS. 

They refuse still to issue watches as they really believe the front will grab her and the shear will affect her and maybe they are right. As someone who grew up and lived in South Florida most of her life I can easily say.. October is about as flaky as a Goblin who had too much brew on South Beach while on vacation... 

Here's hoping Patty doesn't have a mean sense of humor and go "Boo" to the Bahamas...

GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS. 

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=enh&inv=0&t=l12&region=ea

song to loop by ;) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICnlyNUt_0o

In a 80s mood today musically so try this tune as it's what's the NHC is hoping that Patty will do.. come undone... 

Note this IS the 5 Day cone as they expect her to not make it past Friday Night..

As for Invest 98, it looks better.... sort of... more round. Getting there slowly which is a problem as it will get further west and some models currently imply it could affect the islands... specifically PR... as it makes a turn towards the NW. I'll discuss the models later this evening, after I get a stronger feel for what this next system may or may not do...  

For those who had their tropical hearts set on her being Patty, she's a heart breaker and she could, might become Raphael... ah my heart goes pitter patter... love that name. Okay, it's my brother's Hebrew name lol. But, sounds more like some dark, sweet Spanish singer who moved to South Beach from Catalonia... 

(heartbreaker music: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vy-QmgdUVTI)

Some models hint at a pull to the right later down the road... for now though he's 50% still.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Em0QQAhpxKg <--stunningly beautiful visual music video..
BobbiStormPs...not that I am keeping track or anything but... I was right... she didn't die or get grabbed by the trough and she will go down with a name for the 2012 season. Not sure what is next for her ...but my advice is to enjoy her stay in the tropics on the maps and dance to the  music ...

Invest 98 Goes Red at 70%

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The NHC has upped the chances for Invest 98 to become an organized system honoring it with a RED CIRCLE and 70% chances for development.





Still looks a bit weak to me.... looked better earlier tonight, but it's a large area and it takes large areas a long time to develop.... especially this year it seems. This system is similar to other systems that were carrying dust... this system is supposedly devoid of dust so what is the problem here?

There has been some dry air running ahead of the Invest, that's almost gone now... so it's time for this Invest to show us what it has...

TS Patty Strengthens ... South Florida in 5 Day Cone

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How fast things change............. Miami has a 34% Chance of dealing with Patty sooner rather than later...

              FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
  
 W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
  
 MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
  
 MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
  
 KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
  
 MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
  
 GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
  
 NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   X(13)
  
 ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   4(14)   X(14)
  
 GREAT EXUMA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   8(12)   2(14)   X(14)
  
 SAN SALVADOR   34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   4(10)   8(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 MAYAGUANA      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  
 HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
  
 ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
  
 CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
  
 CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

So, much for the 5 PM tag on their advisory saying how she is expected to weaken...

I'm not talking about a strong hurricane... I'm talking about a stubborn, persistent system that has battled strong odds and was written off before she formed twice...



Note how different this is from the 5 PM just six hours earlier... 


This is what my kids would call a total "FAIL" ... six hours ago she wasn't making it out of the Bahamas, now the cone covers most of Cuba.

My problem with the models that I have looked at all night... while watching the VP Debate is that... they don't make sense. Well, they do if you look just at Patty, but when you look at 98 they get sketchy. They show a weak storm, barely formed and then suddenly it explodes (in comparison) and then takes off fast to Patty's stomping ground where it thrives, explodes and zooms off towards the NE as if the models are playing old reruns of Leslie. If that area in the Atlantic is so hostile...why would 98 thrive when Patty dies? And, it's just as easy to see that Patty is getting far enough south to slam into Cuba. Also, why the ramp up of forward motion for Patty and how does Raphael get together suddenly when she is beginning to hit an awkward area of geography for her to intensify?

Very confusing.

GFS:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012101118&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I can see two storms doing a Fujiwara and that happened in 1926... but they need to get closer and that's down the line. Something just doesn't seem quite right there... some missing piece of info. Can't wait to see how this plays out.

As I have been saying all night to a few friends... IF Patty gets down into the Caribbean.. south of Cuba, as crazy as the models seem to be...she can hook north back up towards Florida the next time a front comes down to flirt with Florida again. Go figure. Never write off a storm before she forms when she is this close to land and it's this late in the season when things get funky.

As for Invest 98... he is still consolidating and taking his time...

Keep watching... I know I'll be.

My biggest problem here is not track as much as timing... something doesn't make sense.

Gonna sleep on it... and smile in my sleep...

Sweet Tropical Dreams.. BobbiStorm

Ps... check out those odds up there one more time...and look at the wind forecast below:

TD 17 aka Raphael Seems to be Forming..

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The Navy site has put up an official track and he is looking better and better on visible imagery.


I'd expect an upgrade of some sort tomorrow...or later today depending on when you are reading this..

The models seem a bit out of whack and consistent only IF Patty doesn't make the trek across Cuba and dies a slow death in the Bahamas. If so... the above track makes sense. I'm still not in love with the models.

As for Patty, the NRL updated their map and showed her doing the Samba all the way to Havana.

11 PM: 
 How much will this change in the morning I wonder? 

The NHC did some fancy footwork themselves tonight with their explanation why they added forecast points and updated their track for Patty. Plausible... well written either way.

"DDITONAL FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADDED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS...SINCE THOSE MODELS REFLECT A MORE
ROBUST TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

A FORTUITOUS 11/2031 UTC DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION INDICATED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM 850-300 MB
WAS MUCH LESS THAN THE 28-30 KT 850-200 MB SHEAR ASSESSED BY THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL. THIS MIGHT EXPLAIN WHY PATTY HAS REMAINED
WELL-ORGANIZED TODAY DESPITE WHAT OTHERWISE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT NORTHWARD AND TO
THE EAST OF PATTY...WHICH ACTS TO DECREASE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS."
Sweet Tropical Dreams... going to go to bed and picture Patty swirling SW in my head...

Is TS Patty Playing Possum or About to Bite the Dust?

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You never know with this storm. But, she is caught between a rock and a hard place or in this case two strong entities who are squeezing her, stretching her and trying to pull her apart. The only real hope she has is that the frontal boundary that is digging deep into Florida weakens in a day or two and she finds a safe harbor to wait it out, drifting South...SE or SW and then after she catches her breath she comes back to life. The problem with that scenario is the dipping Upper Level Low to her East. More on that ULL later.



One of the reasons I like this very old satellite loop which is black and white and not as filled with pretty colors as others is how easy it is to use on any computer (loads easy) and how easy it is to play with different images.

Here for example is 12 hours ago:


Current image:


Notice #1 Patty is losing that battle... Notice #2 the ULL is beginning to ventilate Invest 98 to the South...Notice #3 there is an ULL to the West of the Invest also enhancing it's convectionNotice #4 Ull 1 and ULL 2 are trying to lift the InvestNotice #5..the Invest is having a hard time developing...too much going on perhaps
The NRL site has a new chart up for Patty, possibly a sign of the 11 AM advisory though I think the NHC will stick with an update of their last advisory as they have already shifted around much more than they like to do as to sliding cones around.
Their new map shows Patty trying to find a ledge to rest on..will see what the NHC says at 11.
Going over to color for the system with no name that everyone is talking about..
He has two centers in his large convective mass... one closer to Barbados and one closer to Trinidad. Which is the true center or is the convection from the northern one merely displaced to the South?
The planes are going in... so we will have some answers to these questions by about 2 PM this afternoon or by 5 PM when they may or  may not upgrade him to a designated hitter.

And note how close the convection here is to South America... the models continue to drag her north which to me makes much more sense IF Patty stays alive... if Patty wipes and gives up the ghost.. I don't see it. I could be wrong, very possibly but something to me is missing with the models.And, lastly again it's ALL ABOUT LOCATION... that being the true location of the center of this mysterious Raphael wanna be, because once we get a real center we will get real, reliable model output.
Stay tuned.... it's Friday and things often get freaky on Friday :)
Besos BobbiPs... just to remember ... 
Current track of Invest 98:

Invest 97 Still an Invest... No Upgrade Yet... Patty Hangs in there..

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The biggest news of the day so far is that the NHC wrote a long Statement explaining why they have not upgraded Invest 98 to Tropical Storm Status. I've included the whole discussion below as it basically says that they WILL upgrade directly to Tropical Storm status ...if and when... the center forms at the surface. Note my highlight in red.

"Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
10/12/2012 01:46 PM EDT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121744
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALSTORM PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IN RAINBANDS...HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORECONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
IF THIS OCCURS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSSPORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFTWILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BEFOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN"

As for Tropical Storm Patty... they flip flopped the cone again to the east this time... Cuba seems safe for now from any tropical trouble.

Seriously this reads like a mystery drama...

"THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY SINCE FORMATION...PRIMARILY

DUE TO ITS VARYING DEPTHS OF CONVECTION.  LITTLE NET MOTION IS
EXPECTED TODAY...AND AFTER THE SHEAR INCREASES TONIGHT...THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND CAUSE A
SHALLOWER PATTY TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE NHC TRACK IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TO CAPTURE A RECENT DRIFT
IN THAT DIRECTION...THEN IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN 36H."

Cone:


Sometimes...........................there just are no words left lol... 
Stay tuned... the planes are on the way ...if they can find a way to downgrade Patty they will...
Besos Bobbi

New Mack Launched Coaster for Liseberg in 2014

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Sweden's Liseberg Amusement Park started hinting a few days ago that they had a big announcement coming up... but I had no idea just how big it was!

Carefully study this track layout... it is twisted!

Yes... turns out we're talking Mack double launch, 4,445 foot long coaster, currently named Projekt Helix.  Not clear yet on what the final name of the ride will be, but by my standards Project Helix is pretty cool on its own!

Taking full advantage of the hillside that Lisebergbanan did when it opened in 1987, Projekt Helix will start near the top of the hill and use gravity for just a bit before launching up into a huge overbanked turn, and then the journey down the hill begins.  The given height of the ride is 135 feet, though I have to wonder if that's the difference from the highest to the lowest part, as Projekt Helix is most definitely a terrain coaster.


As the train dives down the hillside it first encounters an enormous pretzel loop, seen above.  These are the first two inversions of the six found on the ride and coexist with four air-time hills and plenty of other twists, turns, and helices.  The maximum speed on Projekt Helix will be 62 miles per hour, making it the fastest ride at Liseberg.  The coasters travels up and down the hillside several times, extending over and past several of the park's other rides.


Projekt Helix will utilize the train design that Mack created for Blue Fire at Europa Park, which have had some excellent reviews ever since they debuted.  Above is some concept art for the coaster's trains, carrying on the green theme that matches the ride's track.

The park has also released this slick video of the ride, which shows off much of the $23 million ride's layout.  This is going to be one incredible ride when it opens, and I'm already looking forward to watching it built!

---

The Texas Chute Out's Final Fall

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© Dallas Morning News

Blowing up rides is so hot right now, no?  We recently saw Cedar Point use the pyrotechnic method to bring down the Space Spiral, and today Six Flags Over Texas did a similar job on their famous Texas Chute Out ride.

The park had previously announced that the ride, along with the Flashback roller coaster, would be removed before the 2013 season when the world's tallest Star Flyer, dubbed the Texas SkyScreamer, will open.  That ride will stand an amazing 400 feet in the sky, twice as high as the Chute Out.

The Texas Chute Out was one of only two parachute rides still operating in the U.S., now the only one standing is at Six Flags Great Adventure.  It looks like the ride fell directly onto the former location of the Flashback coaster, which has already been removed from the park.

For the video of the ride coming down, check out the Dallas News, and also for some neat shots of the rubble afterward check out this gallery at the Star-Telegram.

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The Future of Rye Playland Announced

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Finally, a decision has been made on the future of Rye Playland. However, for those of us who are fans of the property as an amusement park may find some disappointment in the plan that has been chosen.

Out of the final three plans that were considered for the future of the county owned park, the choice has been made to move forward with Sustainable Playland - a letter of intent was signed today during a big to-do at the park.  Sustainable Playland is a non-profit that organized to come up with a future for the park designed by locals that extends the use of the property from an amusement park to a park with amusements, as they put it.

The other two plans were from Central Amusements, part of Zamperla Rides, who operate Coney Island's Luna Park, and Standard Amusements, a new company that is led by Jack Falfas, former COO or Cedar Fair.

© Sustainable Playland Inc.

To get right to the point, the new plan will see a considerable amount of rides removed from the park, with a focus on keeping historic ones.  The amusement area will be pay-as-you-go, and quite different from it is now.  From Sustainable Playland's site, in their original proposal documents, regarding amusements at Rye Playland:

"The space allotted to this component of the Park has been significantly reduced, resulting in a reduction in the number of rides from 46 to 33. Those rides that will remain are largely targeted to smaller children, including 21 kiddy rides and 12 family/low thrill rides.  As a result, the potential market for the amusement component will be impacted. In order to estimate the attendance for a kiddy-oriented amusement area, estimates were made which compare a family/low thrill experience (with a smaller percentage of kiddy rides) with a kiddy-oriented experience such as the one planned for Playland Park. Based on these estimates, a reduced, kiddy-oriented amusement component could attract approximately 380,000 visitors a year."

As this was from the original proposal, I can't be sure if they've changed their view on any specifics, but the plan to reduce the rides is definitely moving forward.

© Sustainable Playland Inc.

Basically, if you look at the park from above the left side of the park will remain, and the entire right side of the park will be cleared of rides with the exception of the park's Carousel.  The right side of the park will be used as part of the Great Lawn Zone.  The investment that is listed in today's press release mentions upwards of $7 million planned to be spent on the amusements aspect of the park.

Rides that will be removed, just judging from these images, include: The S&S Double Shot, Playland Plunge shoot-the-chutes, Log Flume, Catch a Wave, Yo-Yo (relocated), Thunderbolt, Kite Flyer (relocated), Sky Flyer, Wipeout, a family coaster, dark ride, and others that I'm probably missing.

It looks as though the park's coaster Super Flight, a Zamperla flying coaster, will stay, although that's without a doubt the first ride I would vote off the island if it were up to me. 

The park's Kiddyland will be kept, and renovated as part of the plan, which makes sense since kiddie and family rides will be the focus.  The park's Old Mill, Derby Racer, Kiddy Coaster, Whip, and Dragon Coaster (among others) will be retained, thankfully.

Since Sustainable Playland is a non-profit they will act as a holding company for the greater Playland area, and hire other groups to run the different facilities on the property.  Naturally, one of these will be the amusements, and that sounds like it will be run by Mega Funworks.  Mega Funworks looks to have a solid track record with water parks, but I do not see any amusement park history listed for them.

The right side of the park will be cleared of rides.

Speaking of water parks, and odd thing about today's announcement is that many news sources used the addition of a "water park" in their headlines, only there doesn't seem to be any water park included in the plan.  There is, however, a small water play area in the original plans adjacent to the beach, but that is by no stretch of the imagination  a water park.  Hopefully plans changed and perhaps that is due to the fact that Mega Funworks has successful water park experience.

The overall plan calls for plenty of new features around the park, part of the overall plan to make the area a year round entertainment zone with a dramatically reduced focus on Rye Playland as an amusement park.  New indoor and outdoor fields will be added, the indoor ice rink will be renovated, an outdoor one will be added, the great lawn will be built to hold concerts and events, and new restaurants will be added.  The release states that $34 million will be spent to make these changes.

Hmm, the right side of the park is quite different than the left.

Depending on when a formal contract with the government can be signed the amusement park may or may not operated in its current state in 2013.  Either way, it is planned to be open, per the news release.  The new fields and other developments will be phased, so these change will by no means take place all at once.

Someone buy me, please!

So after such a long time with the future of the park up in the air how did this all turn out?  Well, not that bad actually - at least I think so.  Well, at least it could have been worse anyway.  Some plans had the amusements totally retired from the property, which would have been a serious shame.  The park's highlights for me when we visited are all being saved, sans the Log Flume, at least.  And to be honest, the difference between the original section of the park (left) and the section that it expanded into over the years (right) is quite drastic. 

If the entire property picks up perhaps we will see new rides added - keeping expectations realistic (in the family oriented sector I would assume) will be important, though.  We will never see a big new roller coaster added, but that's no so bad if it means we can still take a spin on the Dragon or hold on for dear life at the Derby Racer.

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Skycoaster Popularity Still Soaring

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© Ride Entertainment Group

Seven years since their purchase of the Skycoaster attraction, Ride Entertainment Group is still seeing continued success and popularity of the up-charge amusement park attraction.  Kennywood was the first park to build a permanent Skycoaster, and since then they have popped up at parks around the globe and on six continents.

So far there will be two new Skycoaster installations in 2013, one of which will be at Wet'n'Wild in Sydney, Australia.  It will be the first to feature an all new design that uses significantly less steel than any other ride of its size, which will be 251 feet tall.

© Ride Entertainment Group

The engineering that went into the new design of the Skycoaster was a must in order to meet the tough wind codes found in Australia.  Ride Entertainment Group is particularly proud of the work that went into the new design, and sees it as a major plus for the future of the rides.

On the greater future of Ride Entertainment Group CEO Ed Hiller says “Ride Entertainment started as a sales company and has grown into a full service amusement park business with sales, revenue share, installation and operations divisions.  We have seen a lot of change over the past few years and I look forward to continued business growth throughout the industry.”

I'll be excited to see the new design once it goes up in Australia.  If I recall correctly my first Skycoaster was at Cedar Point, and I've had the opportunity to try out quite a few more since then.  The thrill of the plunge is quite addicting!

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The Tropics VS Winter... 2 Weak Circles

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It was a really nice holiday by me.... and I'm just catching up on the details of the Tropics tonight. It's easy to say there are 2 circles.


One off the East Coast near South Florida at the tail end of a frontal boundary that caught up with the system that looked more tropical earlier this morning. Either the frontal boundary catches it or it hangs around and becomes a player. Note...it seems very attracted to the strong, deep cold front.

As for the area in the Atlantic... it also looked better this morning.

Going to wait to do a full post in the morning ...after we see which circle is left standing.

Just saying... it was 45 degrees last night in the RDU area... hot beyond words in Miami.

Somewhere between the two is a divide between winter and tropical... which season is it?

Something to sleep on...

Sweet tropical dreams... Bobbi

Orange Juice, 30% More Pulp & Big Bird VS Sebastian

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Yup, that's where we are this morning. As I predicted last night...forecasted if you will... we only have one circle left standing in the Tropical Atlantic. The system currently approaching South America is up to 30% chances of development and has an orange circle. Considering all the NHC does these days is consider the models... it should be bumped up to 40% later today. The NHC does an incredible job of forecasting, don't get me wrong, but they are overly reliant on the models these days and when the models are working good then they are on Easy Street and on the money.



The models have been busy over night and they do not like the circle previously in the Bahamas that has been forecast to get pulled apart by the frontal boundary that is in it's vicinity. My problem here is that rather than losing it's identity as forecast, it seems to be hanging in there. Sometimes, systems like that drift south, root themselves a bit and when the front dissipates which is an easy call in early October ...it comes back to life fast. Time will tell on that one... so keep watching both areas... and remember the models differed on a resolution to a long term path...some kept it going west against all odds and it is possible those models saw something.   With regard to Invest 98 and the tracks above... wow, that's a hard call. Either it stays weak, goes west..skims the coast of South America (like several other storms so far this season) or it gets pulled north towards the same area that supposedly killed off the Invest that was in the Bahamas.

My problems are that IF a system stays south and bears West... it will most likely pull north more than other systems did earlier this year. Note the green dotted line above aiming for the Dominican Republic. There are too many fronts moving across the country to think that they would not affect any developing tropical storm.

IF you look at the moisture feed, you'll see a nice swirl taking place with the "dead" Invest and a smaller roll beginning down near South America.



Last night the Twitter Feeds were ablaze with long term GFS models shouting on possible development of a storm SW of South Florida... though more likely headed towards Bermuda (where have we seen this scenario before this season...) and that's when they went hog crazy with Invest 98 and dropped the old Invest like a hot potato.


The funny part here is that while I sip my Nespresso...one of the last Naora capsules I have... I decided to check my Twitter feed from this morning. Okay, I didn't check since last night at 1:40 AM when the NHC  put out their 2 AM Discussion.... and what do I see? Bastardi agrees with me... the first Tweet I see is his staring back and me asking the same question I have been thinking as I look at the SATELLITES this morning rather than the models. I'm not ready for the models... it's early still and I need a hot shower and more than Nespresso to deal with the multiple models. I just peaked at SpaghettiModels.com quickly before writing this blog as I knew what was going on from reading email.

So, look at what Twitter has to say as well...



Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardiBaffled by NHC eliminating hatching of area east of the Bahamas. Looks better organized this morning. Should drift southwestExpand 

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Note we are bilingual this morning ;)



Ouragans.com ‏@ouragansLe NHC relève à 30% la probabilité que 98L devienne un cyclone au cours des prochaines 48h lors de son déplacement...http://fb.me/IdNAcM04 Expand 

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Reading on... Bastardi has been about as busy as Matt Drudge online this morning...though he's talking tropical not singing the Sesame Street Blues asking why Big Bird is the question and NOT Bengazi? Well, easier to save Big Bird I guess than to bring our dead Ambassador back to life...


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardiGFS 06z Catching on to the development of system now near 10 n 50w. MJO swinging into favored phase.System e Bahamas may back sw nxt 5 dysExpand 

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More on the models discussion online:


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardiIts not just ooo look at the shear. MJO and 400 mb now FAVORABLE for development in this area as opposed to bulk of seasonExpand 

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2hJoe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardiTropical cyclone threat windwards to Puerto Rico Saturday-Tuesday period. Now that models show it, everyone will start talking about itExpand 

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More than Joe are talking about the models, but I figured since I am watching the Morning Joe on MSNBC and sipping Nespresso my drug of choice this morning is most definitely Joe ;)

Then again, always adored Reed since we used to speak back in the old days... note to son in Iowa... Eastern Iowa.... well why would I send a note here to the son who does weather? I need a shower obviously...


Reed Timmer ‏@reedtimmerTVNForecast hodograph for eastern Iowa 1 pm CDT. If this doesn't scream strong tornadoes than once again, I'm Bob Dolepic.twitter.com/k2X42nGX View photo 

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This is where I fell asleep last night, btw... smiling if I may say so..


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaueCyclogenesis ingredients brewing for potential storm next week. Kinky jet straightens out & screams thru Central USpic.twitter.com/x9XO0qh9 View photo 

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8hRyan Maue ‏@RyanMaueGFS 7-day forecast has a weak low pressure well east of Bahamas at 25°N 65°W ... 1002 mb, maybe Trop Depressionpic.twitter.com/u1Tw1L7b View photo 

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Why is Fox playing "Jesse's Girl" ??? I need a shower... yeah I switched the channel. I do love the Morning Joe, but since the first Presidential debate it has sounded like my Aunt trying to convince my cousin's teachers in High School to give him a break and that he has a lot of potential. Some well meaning mother trying to explain why some kid had attitude and it was just a bad day. Mind you I ADORE my cousin, my pretend brother, my partner in early crime, but I felt so awkward sitting there watching her beg the principal for one last chance...   having Deja Vu this morning on the Morning Joe. And, I find FOX in the morning annoying and I HATE TWC in the morning so ...gonna take a shower and hope this resolves itself sooner rather than later.

Bottom Bobbi Line... I'm going to look for red country boots this morning :) and red high heels and possibly a good clutch bag and a new Winter Coat... before figuring out when I am bailing on Winter and going home to South Florida... and not before a trip to Myrtle Beach..

Bottom Line:

The next 12 hours will tell the tale for Invest 98... it either wraps and pulls together or it takes it's time and the models flip flop and sing songs on the MJO and Water Temps in the Atlantic are HOT as Michael Watkins said to me the other day... so true, very ripe for a threat to blow up fast and furious IF something will just spin.


Michael Watkins ‏@watkinstrack@BobbiStorm Caribbean is virtually untapped this year. Bet we get one October NW Caribbean storm this year.

Note, this IS possible IF the Invest gets further West or something starts to brew down there...

We love to talk... we love to watch...we love to chase and take pictures and so true never stop chasing, but this morning I am looking for good winter chasing boots, because I expect to be up here quite a bit and I expect it to be a cold, damp winter round these parts as in snow.. snow...SNOW.. and boy would i LOVE to see an Ice Storm ;)

Who is reading this ...this morning I wonder... a shout out to my daughter if she is as the headline was for her.

Taking a shower... coffee is good, water is better... and I do my best thinking in the shower.

Need this, want this... 

And, just one last thing to say on Big Bird. I never liked Big Bird. Okay, you heard it from me first. Well, I am being honest. When I was younger... he was SCARY. I never liked yellow (sue me Peter, sue me) and he looked like... haha one BIG YELLOW SCARY Drag Queen version of the old UM Ibis Mascot which scared the living daylights out of me once during the Jr. Orange Bowl Parade. I mean really... there I am walking in my cute little purple velvet baton twiller bathing suit thing with the bright pink bow on my tush that had rhinestones on it ...honest... why we did this back then I don't know but we did. And, I'm waiting to march with my baton and this 9 foot Orange and White Bird Monster with a BIG BEAK leans down to smile and do a funny dance. I thought it was scary as hell then and when I saw Big Bird I thought the same thing then. That and my younger brothers watched it incessantly, annoyingly, obnoxiously and for my other son who I know doesn't read this.. I never liked Fraggle Rock much either... good messages (if my ex-husband reads this... sorry but they were sort of nerdy looking come on...........)

You be the judge?

Bird Bird:



UM IBIS MASCOT:



Would you want this coming at you while you are trying to twirl a baton??

And, may I say Sebastian is WAY COOLER than Big Bird...



Sorry Peter, I am not a "Yellow Person" ....

Besos Bobbi

Ps...keep watching the satellites and let's see what the next set of models say... I think that area by the Bahamas is hanging in there nicely and am turning off ALL News Channels and putting on an old CD from Steven and taking a shower...

Maybe my eyes deceive me and I had too much caffeine, but that area in the Bahamas seems to be going South and separating from the Frontal boundary that is dying out and may I add ...even it's presence as a disturbance could be a player with regard to Invest 98...

Catch me on Twitter...

https://twitter.com/BobbiStorm