The Uncertain Future of TD7

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There is much speculation tonight about the future of TD7 as to whether it does or doesn't make Tropical Storm status or whether it dies out in the Eastern Caribbean.

Official discussion from the NHC reads a bit like a Soap Opera... it's fragile and might need life support or some counseling, not having a good time... opening up and exposing it's center while at the same time showing more convection.  I never thought it looked good ever... but ...time will tell.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
MAY BE ELONGATING...AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE CENTER IS
EVEN CLOSED ANYMORE. THE CYCLONE IS BEING KEPT AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE EVIDENCE APPEARS TO BE MOUNTING THAT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT TAKE PLACE. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING
INTO A HIGHER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOON...AND THE LGEM AND SHIPS
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS
OR SO. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. GIVEN THE CURRENT FRAGILE STATE OF
THE DEPRESSION...AND THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT LIE AHEAD...
THE NEW NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THEN SHOWS DISSIPATION
INTO A TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 3.


Out to the East ...far East, near Africa our Orange Circle is battling the same conditions that did Florence and others in...


Models are beginning to look like an Etch A Sketch gone mad... interesting to see some models bend it's track back south again... who knows....




As they talk on killing off TD7... the remnants of Florence are now forever joined together with another trough that will cause rainy day misery to someone probably in Miami.


A lot of moisture swirling around, yet nothing big to write home about... just yet.



Something I do want to mention here is the crazy weather in NEW ENGLAND today... and across Long Island. Severe weather, tornado reports, plane delays of over 4 hours. There has been and there is a tremendous amount of hot water off the NE coast and there is more cyclonic twisting over the Great Lakes than there is in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean. Frontal boundaries are moving down. It feels more like the very end of August than the beginning and I keep thinking it's a ripe year for another storm to make it up towards Long Island and New England.



Just something to think on....

Besos Bobbi

Quick Note on African Wave & Dust & Rain in MIA

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Has a very nice roll on the "juice loop" which shows a nice circulation...however it lacks convection.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

The Saharan Dust that is due into the Miami area will come in on the same winds that brought this batch of heavy rain. What the NHC will do about this is still a mystery to me, organized wave, circulation, modeling and no rain... the dust is strong out there still. And, the orange circle with 20% chances to develop as of 8pm is barreling straight into the dust... go figure.

Note the discussion from the NWS:

"AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN CUBA EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF THE CWA. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WHICH IN TURN PUSHED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWARD TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY SUNDAY...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WEST INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING
FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO DRIFT
BACK NORTH INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY...BEFORE GOING BACK TO MORE OF A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS."

SAL aka Dust Loop: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html

NOTE: If and when the dust subsides... we in Miami are in the flow for more tropical weather as the season ramps up. Keep watching and thinking on that while you are looking up at the rain fall this weekend.  If nothing changes, we will get organized rain in the form of something tropical. Unless something big changes.

Sweet Tropical Dreams
BobbiStorm

Tropical Atlantic Goes Poof

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We are down to 2 yellow circles, both with low chances of development. The math is not important here, the science is and the science says... too much dust in the Atlantic that is cruising west bound towards the Caribbean along with inferior waves and models that are not batting 100 when it comes to predicting cyclone formation.

The models shot off random storms last week near the West Coast of Florida, the Eastern Atlantic and New England... and nothing really happened.

On top of that, Ernesto moved into the Pacific and had a name chance and was christened Hector earlier today.


I rarely cover Easter Pacific storms, but this is too funny to be ignored. If there was a Reality TV Show for the Tropics... this would be the story of the week for sure. A wave that could never find it's groove finds it just hours before making landfall in Mexico, then goes on to kill 8 people and rather than dying it does better over land than it did over most of the Atlantic Ocean and gets reborn in the Pacific.
"THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF

ERNESTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRCULATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE
IS VERY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED."

They always say real estate is about Location, Location and Location ...suppose tropical weather is too!

Note the loop below... it shows an STRONG PLUME of moisture coming north out of the Caribbean aimed at South Florida and areas beyond.  Worth noting for a multitude of reasons. 

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticSatellite.aspx?animate=true

The wave out near Africa didn't do much today, other than falling apart... so much for the models predicting a hurricane. Remember that next time someone waxes poetic on the GFS and the various ensemble models.... they are not always reliable.

TD7 also went poof today and then after the NHC issued a death knell discussion on it's chances of redevelopment being next to zero... it flares up again. Would say it almost looks better now than it did earlier, but will see how it does overnight.

A new wave is departing Africa that has been christened a "good wave" but to me... it's a weak looking wave lacking color. Perhaps we have forgotten what a GOOD WAVE looks like..... dark color, reds, purples, bigger than a circus tent, stronger than a rainstorm...able to withstand the problems with SAL and cooler water than needed to get a steam engine going.

Soooooooooooooooooooooo...am going to leave it tonight at this...

The tropics went poof tonight... well in the Atlantic Basin they did... the hot water is oddly up near New York

Keep watching.... something will pop somewhere. But, the energy in the Eastern Pacific will probably shut down the Caribbean for the next week... and help generate a continued South to North flow of energy towards Cuba and Florida.

Besos Bobbi
Ps I still think the area near the ULL and remnants of Florence in the Bahama is worth watching... weather is quirky and often unpredictable, that is why we are here trying to figure it out.

:)

A Slow, Subtle Seduction in the Tropics

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There's nothing more seductive to a tropical meteorologist than watching the water vapor loop. It's a slow, sexy, subtle, seductive dance as the wet and dry areas mix their way across the globe in real time.  Rivers of moisture, oozing this way or that as they make their way from Japan across the Pacific, through the Plains...the Great Lakes and then push off the coast of the Carolinas into the Atlantic Ocean. As the storms move into the Atlantic Ocean they come face to face with ridges and Upper Level Lows and there are more subtleties than watching a Lava Lamp over time.

Nothing is ever really stagnant even when you look at the IR Loop and you see not much going on.

A look at the wide view, on the surface would make one thing there is one large rainstorm in the Atlantic, a weak wave off of Africa and the remnants of TD7 cruising through the Caribbean.


Yet, turn on the Water Vapor Loop and you see every innuendo and mystery that is out there.
There are lots of other forecasting tools, but the Water Vapor Loop is mesmerizing and a good predictor of where the moisture is going, where it is flowing, where it is shut down and what may happen to any wave out there in the short term. 
There IS an area of strong convection...also known as "big red dot" off the East Coast and it is getting the squeeze play apparent in the Water Vapor Loop and being shunted for now down to the South a bit vs moving Eastward into the Atlantic Ridge.  Those areas are always fun to watch. Usually nothing happens, sometimes something does. Worth watching. Not much else to watch.  
And, the area off the coast of Florida has a small purple sliver of plum pie showing the merest of possibilities that something could form there.


There is also an accumulation of convection in the Bay of Campeche over the last several hours and there is a cute large blueberry surrounded by a ring of grapes on the chart above so it's possible something could pop there.
The Cape Verde Island Wave has been swallowed up by the vacuum cleaner of the year in the Tropics... African Dust aka SAL. In fact, it's made it's way to the East coast in little clusters of dust, it even lit up the sky in Austin Texas last month with a colorful sunset. 
See story links:http://www.kxan.com/dpp/news/texas/african-dust-cloud-spreads-to-texas
http://www.i4u.com/2012/07/texas/dust-clouds-african-sky-austin(has a day by day look at how the African Dust moved across Texas)
Sample: "Friday 07/20/12The leading edge of a large African dust cloud is covering much of South Texas this morning and will likely move into Central and Southeast Texas this afternoon and evening and could raise the daily PM2.5 AQI to “Moderate” in much of this area. Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and low incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range.Saturday 07/21/12
A large African dust cloud should cover most of the southern half of the state from Big Bend to Waco to Lufkin and should raise daily PM2.5 AQI levels to “Moderate” in most of this area. Elsewhere in the state, moderate winds and low incoming background levels should help to keep air quality in the “Good” range. "
Again, the Tropics are always active even when there are no tropical cyclones threatening to blow some small town off the map. And, by watching the WV loop you can watch it in real time as the upper levels of the atmosphere that are filled with moisture move across the planet, mixing and dancing and rearranging the upper air currents as they come in contact with high, dry pressure.
It's an awesome dance... and even when there is nothing to track or chase or forecast...there is always the Water Vapor Loop.

Here's a loop:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/satellite-wv?play=true
Music to loop by:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6I6UXb08n8

Besos Bobbi

Tropically Inspirational...

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On a slow storm day, without any real named storm on the map in August I find great inspiration in great photography that illustrates better than any words can describe the beauty, the majesty and the wonder that is life in the tropics.



I grew up not far from where this picture was taken, every day is different...similar but different. In most parts of the country up north the leaves change, they turn colors... they fall off and everything is brown or white covered in snow. In Miami, the leaves stay the same and only the colors of the flowers punctuate our lush, green, tropical lawns yet the sky.... that's a different story. Sunrise and sunset bring colors not seen in most parts of the country. A thunderstorm covering the sky moving in over the Bay changes everything in less than fifteen minutes. I've sat not far from where this picture was taken on a sunny, warm, summer day and watched in utter amazement as a storm blew in from the West.... covered the sky and the Australian Pines and Coconut Palms turned the darkest green against a purple, black sky ...the color of the water turning a foamy sea green and then in fifteen minutes it was gone again as if nothing had ever happened.

Clouds form, they climb, they change color...and they do it so fast that if you stop to call someone or text them to look....the scene has changed and the clouds rearranged and you missed the shot or the moment. Sometimes, you just got to stop, point and shoot and hope you got the picture that you saw moments before.

Spent many a day as a child sitting on the sea wall on 15th Road looking out at the Bay...watching clouds.

Neal Dorst, a friend and a meteorologist at NOAA took that beautiful picture above. Just stunning. I feel like Dorothy looking through the looking glass back home at Kansas, except my Kansas is Miami and in particular the old part of Miami... the Roads Section, blocks from the Bay where my cousin and I would play as kids on bikes and when older we'd park the car, share a beer and stare out at the water.  Pure love of the beauty of Biscayne Bay, pure love of watching the sky and the clouds that tower higher and more beautiful in Miami than any place I've ever seen...except for maybe Key West.

Almost the same view of the Key Biscayne Marina on a different day, another moment caught by Neal.



The same view, no matter what was built on the land.... the view of the clouds and Biscayne Bay has not changed since Ralph Munroe sailed the waters in his King Fish and Marjory Stoneman Douglas took picnics on Key Biscayne and watched the clouds and storms roll in...

One thing that has changed over time is the chain of islands going over to Key Biscayne from Miami. In 1835 a very strong Hurricane tore a hole through the island and gave us the gift of Bear Cut. Supposedly, according to Dr. Paul George it tore up the hammocks and mangroves facing south towards the Bay .... a Major storm so strong the likes of which Miami has not seen in well over a hundred years, now going on two hundred years... coming in from that particular angle as it curved up into Miami from the Keys vs coming in from the East like Andrew.  We've had storms like King and Cleo that came in from that general direction , but neither of them were as strong as the 1835 Hurricane. One day, another storm will take that track however we will be as prepared as we can be because of the work of the National Hurricane Center.



Another pic by Neal Dorst of Bear Cut, not far from the roof of the AOML building sits  a constant reminder of what nature can do to the land over time. In 1835 there weren't many people living in Miami, a few missionaries, Native Americans and a few farmers working land grants ...several decades before William Brickell set up his trading post at the mouth of the Miami River and watched clouds form out over the water waiting for customers to sail up to his dock.



http://www.brickell-life.com/2011/12/brickell-circa-1900.html

That curve of the land above the trading post is where I would sit with my cousin... watching the clouds.

And, that is what tropically inspires me on a day like today when there is not much to write about regarding the absence of storms with any real malice in the Caribbean or the Atlantic Ocean. What I can do is tell you why I love the tropics ...their weather, their flowers, their beautiful moments which come alive all hours of the day ...from sunrise to sunset and especially during late afternoon thunderstorms :)

See the links to books you might want to read ...while waiting for something to form in the Atlantic Tropical Basin... and maybe, perhaps you can see it through the eyes of Ralph Munroe or Margorie Stoneman Douglas.

As for the tropics today...

There isn't much going on in the Atlantic Tropical Basin to talk about of any real urgency.


The clusters of convection down in the SW Caribbean are the remnants of TD7, gone  but not forgotten....but not doing anything exciting either.

In the middle of the Atlantic is an area that looks as if it has some circulation, some form... no color, no real convection and it's traveling with Cousin Sal ...otherwise it might have been a contender. It has an orange circle with 30% chances...but if it does develop it's going to circle around in the Atlantic and head back towards Europe.  A little late for the Olympics, but the Queen is still there so imagine it wouldn't be a lost trip around the Atlantic.  This was remember the system that was supposed to develop and make it's way across the Atlantic... sometimes it's good to remember that models can be wrong.



Officially, this is the Outlook aka the TWO from the NHC at 8AM. Updates again at 2PM, but there shouldn't be many changes to this discussion.

2. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT
1050 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA 
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE... 30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

The people who bought cheap Caribbean Cruises in August got lucky and are having beautiful sailing weather with nothing but a few stray afternoon showers to rain on their travel days. 
But, you never really know when discussing the tropics. Things can blow up fast and develop close in without much model discussion.  Nothing is going to surprise us again in the way that the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane suddenly developed into a Major Hurricane and took Sunday travelers out on the Overseas Highway by surprise the way it did back then.  Hurricane Andrew is a good example of this, and that was 20 years ago. A weak, westbound storm barely surviving negative conditions on it's way towards the Carolina coast ...suddenly, rapidly intensified and turned due west and headed towards Miami.  Had it been 1915 or 1935 we may have only had shipping reports of a small, cyclone out in the middle of the Atlantic... nothing to worry about. By the time Andrew would have taken the Bahamas by surprise Miami would have had very little time to prepare and most likely would not have believed the reports.  In 1926, after two weak tropical storms that the natives were warned could be dangerous they took the reports of a another West Indies Storm headed their way with a lot of grains of salt. 
There were no models... there were no APPS or websites warning people of destruction at dawn.
We have come a long, long way since even 20 years ago when the Aviation model was considered a new untested model and an  August front was expected to pull Andrew NW rather than due West.
We owe a ton of gratitude to the people at both the NHC and AOML/HRD for the non-stop work they do improving on themselves every year in understanding how something that was once a mystery, that tormented the islanders is now something that we can watch as they develop in real time.
Still beautiful, still amazing.... still so much to learn... like why the models thought that Ernesto might make it into the Gulf of Mexico as a strong storm when.... he stayed weak and then made it into the Pacific as Hector. To be fair, some models showed him making it all the way west into the Pacific, but others took him north. We've come a long way... we are still learning............ but we have a lot more time to prepare than we used to and we are getting better every day.

Besos BobbiPs...thanks Neal Dorst for the inspiration and the awesome pictures!
http://www.amazon.com/Commodores-Story-Early-Days-Biscayne/dp/0935761004/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344964242&sr=1-3





http://www.amazon.com/Voice-River-Marjory-Stoneman-Douglas/dp/0910923949/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1344964302&sr=1-1&keywords=marjorie+stoneman+douglas